Thursday, 30th April, 2020

As New Zealand emerges out of Level 4 lockdown, attention is inevitably shifting from the extent of economic damage wrought by the lockdown, to the shape of the recovery. We estimate economic activity will still only be around 80% of normal in Level 3 as the economy will be battling through the headwinds of damaged household incomes and business balance sheets, weak confidence, and a much larger debt burden. And we think it will take a full three years before the economy gets back to its pre-COVID starting point. Read the full report here.