Wednesday, 29th August, 2018

We’ve shifted our OCR call out to 2020 and we discuss that move and our economic forecasts more generally. However, we haven’t changed our OCR view, as some other commentators have, and we have a more positive growth view than the RBNZ. The key difference is that we anticipate that economic activity is going to remain relatively positive despite low levels business confidence. Our chart of the week is case in point – it hints at ongoing healthy business investment activity as imports of plant and machinery remain firm. On this theme, the key piece of data this week is the August ANZ Business Outlook Survey. While markets are ready to pounce should the data weaken further on Thursday, we anticipate that in time the more positive reality will prevail.


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