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ASB Economic Update: Watching and waiting

Wednesday, 10th October, 2018

Last week’s domestic data continues to point to a loss of economic momentum, with the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion suggesting that economic growth likely decelerated. Of note was the further decline in the proportion of firms reporting an in…

ASB Economic Update: Solid Q2 growth expected

Wednesday, 26th September, 2018

On Page 2 this week we break down our expectations for Q2 GDP (released on Thursday at 10:45am). We are expecting growth to have held up in Q2, with 0.9% qoq expected. Our Chart of the Week shows that accommodative monetary conditions are likely to contin…

ASB Economic Update: Neutral rate drifting lower

Wednesday, 12th September, 2018

This week we explore the recent path of the neutral real interest rate (or Goldilocks rate – not too hot, not too cold) in NZ on Page 2. We find that it has been drifting lower since the Global Financial Crisis, which has implications for a wide variety o…

ASB Economic Update: Shifting our OCR call to 2020

Wednesday, 29th August, 2018

We’ve shifted our OCR call out to 2020 and we discuss that move and our economic forecasts more generally. However, we haven’t changed our OCR view, as some other commentators have, and we have a more positive growth view than the RBNZ. The key difference…
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